Treasure Valley Population Growth and Housing by City

How does Treasure Valley population growth affect housing demand by city?

Treasure Valley population growth is real, but it lands unevenly from one city to the next. COMPASS estimates Ada and Canyon counties at 876,760 residents in 2026, about 150,000 more than the 2020 Census, yet August 2026 data shows Boise averaging about 22 days on market compared with 40 in Kuna and 47 in Star. Growth is one input to your decision, not a guarantee of faster sales or rising prices.

Key Takeaways

• COMPASS's 2026 estimate puts Ada and Canyon counties at 876,760 residents, roughly 150,000 more than the 2020 Census.
• Star and Kuna each grew about 14% from 2025 to 2026, while Meridian and Nampa grew about 3%.
• Caldwell added about 5,160 residents between 2025 and 2026, Kuna about 4,810, and Meridian about 4,730.
• At the end of August 2026, average days on market were about 22 in Boise, 40 in Kuna, and 47 in Star, so fast population growth did not mean fast sales.
• Canyon County, where Caldwell sits, is reported separately from Ada County, so never apply one county's market numbers to the other.

Which Treasure Valley cities are adding the most residents?

Among the cities COMPASS reported, Caldwell added the most people between 2025 and 2026 at about 5,160, followed by Kuna at about 4,810 and Meridian at about 4,730. Star and Kuna led on percentage growth at about 14% each. Those are two different ways of measuring "growth," and they point to different things.

The COMPASS 2026 population estimate release was accepted on April 27, 2026. It also puts the broader four-county planning area (adding Boise and Elmore counties) at 915,940 residents, more than 20% above 2020.

Star is the clearest example of a small city growing fast. Its population rose from 11,107 in the 2020 Census to an estimated 24,950 in 2026, a gain of about 131% in six years, according to the same COMPASS figures. Meridian added a similar number of people to Kuna but at a much lower percentage, because it started from a larger base.

City-by-city snapshot

The days-on-market figures come from the Boise Regional REALTORS® August 2026 Ada County stat sheets. They are city-level market-time indicators, not direct measures of population-driven demand.

Is this migration?

Not necessarily, and I want to be careful here. The COMPASS release reports population estimates and changes. It doesn't break out how many people arrived from other states, how many moved between Treasure Valley cities, or how much growth came from births exceeding deaths. So when someone tells you "everyone is leaving Boise for Kuna and Star," the population numbers alone can't confirm that. I'll describe these figures as population growth and leave it there.

Does population growth make homes sell faster in Boise, Star, or Kuna?

No, not automatically. In the August 2026 Ada County figures, Boise averaged about 22 days on market, while Kuna averaged about 40 and Star about 47, even though Star and Kuna were among the fastest-growing cities by percentage.

That comparison is the whole lesson. Fast growth in a city doesn't guarantee that homes there sell quickly or that prices climb. It's one thing to investigate, not a conclusion.

Why can inventory sit even when people keep arriving?

Inventory reflects how many homes are for sale compared with how many buyers are ready to buy at today's prices and mortgage rates. New construction, existing owners listing, affordability, employment, and buyer preferences all push on that balance at the same time. Population is only one of those forces.

The Boise Regional REALTORS® August 2026 Ada County market report shows 1,979 homes in inventory (its year-earlier comparison is 2,213) and an average of about 41 days on market for the relevant single-family measure. Those are county-wide numbers. Within that county, the city-level figures above show how differently individual markets behave.

What this means if you're buying

• Longer market times can give you more room to review options. How much room depends on the price point, the condition of the home, and the specific street, so don't assume it.
• Don't pay a premium for a growth headline. A city adding residents quickly can still have plenty of homes for sale in your range.
• Compare homes against recent sales in the same city, not against the valley as a whole.

What this means if you're selling

• Price from recent comparable sales and current competition in your city and price range, not from population news.
• Expect different timelines in different cities. A Boise listing and a Star listing don't move at the same pace, based on the August numbers above.
• Ask how many similar homes are active right now near yours. That tells you more about your timeline than any regional growth figure.

This is exactly the kind of question I walk my clients through before we ever list or write an offer. Your answer depends on your home, your street, and your timing, and that's where a local market analysis comes in.

What local housing indicators matter more than population growth alone?

Active inventory, new listings, closed sales, pending sales, median or average sale price, days on market, and sale-to-list-price behavior tell you far more about your specific market than a population total. Population growth can help explain why those numbers move, but it can't replace them.

Here's how I'd read them for any city you're considering:

1. Inventory trend. Is the number of homes for sale in your city and price range rising, falling, or flat?
2. New listings versus closed sales. If more homes are coming on than selling, supply is building.
3. Pending activity. This shows how many buyers are actually getting under contract.
4. Days on market. This tells you how long a well-priced home sits in that particular city.
5. Sale-to-list-price behavior. This shows whether sellers are getting their asking price or negotiating down.
6. Price trend. Look at median or average sale price over several months, not a single data point.

Keep Caldwell and Canyon County separate

Caldwell added more residents than any other city I cited between 2025 and 2026, but its housing market should be judged with Canyon County data, not Ada County data. Boise Regional REALTORS® publishes a separate Canyon County market report for that reason. Conditions in Caldwell aren't interchangeable with Boise, Star, or Kuna, and I'll pull the latest Canyon County figures with you rather than assume.

Pay attention to the time window

The population figures here are 2026 estimates, with city growth measured from 2025 to 2026 and longer-term change measured from the 2020 Census to 2026. The housing figures I cited are primarily for August 2026, the most recent city-level numbers I'm citing in this post. Market conditions shift month to month, so treat these as a starting point and check current numbers before you list or make an offer.

I believe in education before sales. My job is to make sure you understand what these numbers say, and what they don't, before you decide anything.

FAQ

Is Star growing faster than Boise, Kuna, and Caldwell in 2026?

By percentage, Star and Kuna are tied at the top, with both growing about 14% from 2025 to 2026. Star's longer-term growth is striking, from 11,107 residents in 2020 to an estimated 24,950 in 2026, per COMPASS. In raw numbers, Caldwell added more people (about 5,160) because it started from a larger base.

Which Treasure Valley cities are adding the most residents?

Among the cities COMPASS reported for 2025 to 2026, Caldwell added about 5,160 residents, Kuna about 4,810, and Meridian about 4,730. Percentage growth tells a different story, with Star and Kuna at about 14% and Meridian and Nampa at about 3%.

Does population growth make homes sell faster in Boise or Star?

Not on its own. At the end of August 2026, average days on market were about 22 in Boise and about 47 in Star, per the Ada County stat sheets, even though Star's percentage growth is far higher. Pricing, condition, supply, and affordability all matter alongside growth.

Why can inventory increase even when Treasure Valley population is growing?

Inventory depends on supply and buyer readiness, not just headcount. New construction, owners choosing to list, mortgage rates, and affordability all affect how many homes are for sale versus how many buyers are ready to act at current prices.

Are buyers moving from Boise to Kuna, Star, or Caldwell?

The COMPASS figures show population totals and changes, not where residents moved from, so they can't confirm that. Describing growth as migration would require a separate official dataset on moves between cities or from other states. I'd rather tell you what the data supports than guess.

Where should you start?

Treasure Valley population growth is a useful backdrop, but your decision lives at the city, price-point, and street level. If you want to see how your target city compares on inventory, market time, and pricing before you buy or list, schedule a consultation with me and we'll look at the numbers together.

Equal Housing Opportunity. Robert Renteria, Real Estate Salesperson, Keller Williams Realty Boise, regulated by the Idaho Real Estate Commission. This article is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice; confirm your own numbers with your title company, tax advisor, or lender.